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Record corn production forecast in August WASDE data

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The newest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates data was released today, and this marks the first survey-based 2016 production forecasts for rice, corn, soybeans, cotton, and sorghum.

Coming out of the USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist, the WASDE report’s highlights are listed below. To see the full report, click on this link.

Wheat: Projected U.S. supplies for 2016/17 are raised on a larger crop that is partially offset by lower imports. U.S. wheat production is raised for all 5 major wheat classes.

Global wheat supplies for 2016/17 are raised 2.3 million tons on a 4.9-million production increase that is partially offset by a decrease in beginning stocks. Global trade is raised 2.3 million tons on larger global supplies.

Coarse Grains: Projected 2016/17 U.S. feed grain supplies are increased this month with higher forecast corn, sorghum, barley, and oats production. Corn production is forecast at a record 15.2 billion bushels, up 613 million from the July projection. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 175.1 bushels per acre, is up 7.1 bushels from last month’s trend-based projection and above the record 171.0 bushels in 2014/15.

Total U.S. corn use for 2016/17 is projected 300 million bushels higher at a record 14.5 billion.

Rice: Total U.S. rice supplies for 2016/17 are lowered 2.2 million cwt from last month to 307.7 million, still the highest on record. The 2016/17 global production forecast is lowered fractionally to 481.1 million tons (milled basis), still the highest on record.

Oilseeds: U.S. oilseed production for 2016/17 is projected at 120.2 million tons, up 4.8 million from last month due to a higher soybean production forecast. Soybean production for 2016/17 is forecast at 4,060 million bushels, up 180 million due to increased yields.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2016/17 is forecast at $8.35 to $9.85 per bushel, down 40 cents on both ends of the range. U.S. changes for 2015/16 include increased soybean crush and exports, and lower ending stocks.

Livestock: The forecast for total red meat and poultry production for 2016 is reduced from last month as increased beef and turkey production is more than offset by lower forecast pork and broiler production. Beef production is forecast higher on higher expected third quarter steer and heifer slaughter.

The beef import forecasts for 2016 and 2017 are raised in part due to expectations of increased imports from Brazil beginning in the later part of 2016

Cattle, hog, and broiler prices for second-half 2016 are reduced from last month on weakness in current prices. Prices for cattle, hogs and broilers for 2017 are reduced from last month as production is forecast higher; however, the annual price range for cattle is unchanged.

 

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