There’s no such thing as a one-size-fits-all approach to crop production and farming success, especially when the climate and individual weather events are involved. So it’s with great interest that the University of Minnesota, in partnership with researchers from the University of Oxford and the University of Copenhagen, used weather and reported crop data to evaluate the potential impact of observed climate change. The study was published in PLOS ONE.
The world’s top 10 crops — barley, cassava, maize, oil palm, rapeseed, rice, sorghum, soybean, sugarcane, and wheat — supply a combined 83 percent of all calories produced on cropland. Yields had long been projected to decrease in future climate conditions. However, new research shows climate change has already affected production of these key energy sources — and some regions and countries are faring far worse than others.
The researchers found that:
- observed climate change causes a significant yield variation in the world’s top 10 crops, ranging from a decrease of 13.4 percent for oil palm to an increase of 3.5 percent for soybean, and resulting in an average reduction of approximately one percent of consumable food calories from these top 10 crops;
- impacts of climate change on global food production are mostly negative in Europe, Southern Africa, and Australia, generally positive in Latin America, and mixed in Asia and Northern and Central America;
- half of all food-insecure countries are experiencing decreases in crop production — and so are some affluent industrialized countries in Western Europe;
- contrastingly, recent climate change has increased the yields of certain crops in some areas of the upper Midwest United States.
“There are winners and losers, and some countries that are already food insecure fare worse,” says lead author Deepak Ray of the University of Minnesota’s Institute on the Environment, whose high-resolution global crop statistics databases have also been used to help to identify how global crop production changes over time. These findings indicate which geographical areas and crops are most at risk, making them relevant to those working to achieve the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals of ending hunger and limiting the effects of climate change. Insights like these lead to new questions and crucial next steps because these changes are happening now, not in some distant future.