The USDA released their January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate Forecast (WASDE) today. Here’s what you need to know:
Wheat: U.S. 2016/17 all wheat ending stocks are raised this month and projected to reach the highest level since the late 1980s. The season-average farm prices is raised $o.10 at the midpoint to $3.80 on higher-than-expected cash prices to date. However this season-average will still be the lowest since 2005.
Corn: This month’s 2016/17 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced feed and residual use, increased corn used to produce ethanol, and smaller stocks. Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 25 million bushels to 5,325 million based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report. The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is raised five cents on both ends to $3.10 to $3.70 per bushel.
Sorghum: Production for 2016/17 is estimated at 18 million bushels higher on increases in both harvested area and yield. Grain sorghum prices are projected to average $2.65 to $3.15 per bushel — down 15 cents at the midpoint reflecting the weakening relationship to corn prices in interior markets.
Rice: The U.S. 2016/17 all rice crop is reduced 10.6 million cwt to 224.1 million on lower area and yield. The projected all rice season-average farm price is unchanged at a range of $9.90 to $10.90 per cwt.
Soybeans: Soybean production is estimated at a record 4,307 million bushels, down 54 million from last month on lower yields. The 2016/17 U.S. season-average farm price forecast for soybeans is projected at $9.00 to $10.00 per bushel, from $8.70 to $10.20 — up 5 cents at the midpoint.
Sugar: U.S. cane sugar production for 2016/17 is reduced by 29,236 short tons, raw value (STRV) based on industry reporting in Louisiana and Texas. Ending stocks for 2016/17 are projected at 1.881 million STRV, implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 15.4 percent.
Cotton: The U.S. 2016/17 cotton outlook shows larger production, exports, and ending stocks relative to last month. The forecast range for the marketing year average price received by producers is narrowed 1 cent on each end to 65 to 69 cents per pound, with the midpoint unchanged at 67 cents.
Livestock, poultry, and dairy: For 2017, red meat and poultry production is raised largely on higher forecast pork production, although forecasts of beef and broilers are raised. The 2017 cattle price forecast is increased on continued strong demand into the first part of 2017. The hog price forecast for first quarter 2017 is raised on demand strength, but price forecasts for subsequent quarters are lowered as hog supplies are expected to be large. Milk production for 2016 is raised on slightly larger milk cow numbers. Class prices for 2017 are raised, reflecting higher product price forecasts. The all milk price range is raised to $17.60 to $18.40 per cwt.