Crops

Price Futures: Buying hogs for no reason

Published:

As many of you know that follow my newsletters, buying commodities at extremes usually proposes a contrarian stance, and quite frankly, that’s the way I like it.

When one decides to enter an investment of any nature, especially when 90 percent agree with your fundamental or technical analysis, BEWARE! Right now there is nothing bullish about hogs.

Fundamentally or technically, … Wholesale pork prices have slipped into darkness. Recently we have seen eight straight days of declines.

Subsequently, December Hog futures have plunged from $65.35 on August 16th to $55.77 on August 29th.

While the day-to-day commentary continues bearish my Long Term Practical Strategies (LTPS) tells me this could be one of the most important commodity investments of the year.

Let me be clear on why.

Commentary from most media concerns and many short-term newsletter prognosticators were also negative when:

  • Silver was trading $15.00 (Silver is now trading over $18.00).
  • My letter recommended buying silver $16.11.
  • Many thought I was just wrong when I bought Cotton at $66.90 even though this year’s cotton crop looked to be a bin buster.
  • Cotton futures are trading over $74.00 because of hurricane Harvey and a possible Irma impact.
  • I wish you could have heard the phone calls and posts I got after my recommendation to buy Gasoline futures at $1.43. I was told:
    • “Supply was insurmountable.”
    • “The market is stuck in the mud.”
    • My favorite as always…”The funds are short!”
  • Well, then came Harvey and gasoline (RBOB) prices exploded. Futures traded $2.17.

Please understand that I wish I could take credit for these amazing commodity investments, but to be entirely honest I’m probably a below average trader. No, I’m a terrible commodity investor. As a matter of fact for twenty-three years I never showed a profit on a yearly basis.

For more than twenty years, from 1974 to 1997, my mindset was to implement short-term trades that gave me many short-term profits but paid many more commissions. More importantly, losses always overshadowed profitable positions.

Problem was I never captured a major commodity move in all those years.

In 1997 I came to a crossroad. Leave the business or change philosophy.

In 1997 my Long Term Practical Strategies were born.

In the last twenty years I’ve gone from never participating in a major commodity move to by enlarge never missing one.

I feel compelled to share this with all of you because I really believe it’s the only way to be successful with any investment.

Very simply…

I look for markets that are at extreme lows or highs and hold these positions until these markets approach the opposite extreme.

Right now I’m buying December Hogs. Hogs futures are in fact in the lower 25% of the long term trading range and my long term formula is up.
December Hogs are presently trading $60.30.

A move into the upper 25% of the trading range (over $108.00) is a move worth approximately $20,000.00 per 1 contract.

If you are involved in a negative way with your commodity portfolio, and you are ready to implement my Long Term Practical Strategies, please call me personally for a market plan that suits your specific goals. My goal is to inform you how commodity investing can be a viable part of your investment portfolio in general.

Those of you that are new to commodity investing please call for additional details regarding my strategies and markets you should focus on.
I would be more than happy to visit you personally to present a market plan.

There are four important components regarding my strategies.

  1. Positions are established only in the upper or lower 25% of the long term trading range.
  2. Positions are established only when my long-term formula turns up or down within that 25% parameter.
  3. Positions are held until positions reach the opposite extreme high or low or until my long-term formula changes direction.
  4. Correct money management strategies must be implemented. No more than three contracts per $10,000.

Let me be clear. My strategies also incur drawdowns. My contention is if one can establish positions at extremes risk is limited.

My strategies also require one to maintain:

Patience, Commitment, Vision and Discipline.

Those of you that have an interest in additional details should call me personally. Would love to hear from you. 312-286-9320.
In the mean time…Keep holding and keep accumulating with my LTPS.

Have a great year trading.

 

The Price Futures Group’s mission is to provide traders and investors with industry-leading trading solutions, informative market analysis, and cutting-edge technologies which enable efficient decision-making. The Group is available answer marketing questions and meet your investment needs. Find the company online at www.pricegroup.com or call the Chicago office at (888) 264-5665.

Tags: agriculture news, ag news, commodity markets, commodities, crop markets, corn, oil
Any views or opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect those of AGDAILY. Comments on this article reflect the sole opinions of their writers.
Previous Article Next Page