Tropical Storm Harvey’s path seems to be headed to the Caribbean or the Yucatan Peninsula while the second wave may be the one to watch which is being tracked to make landfall on Florida or could change course and cruise into the Gulf of Mexico. These events are expected to happen in the next 4 days and investors are watching. And we have a third Disturbance lurking west and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. These storms could be a boon to the Energy complex and the Orange Juice contract as well. Today we have a Milk Production report at 2:00 P.M. Central. On the Grain front it was rather quiet in the overnight electronic session. While investors are keeping their eyes on yields other traders believe it is a no brainer that that the carryover will cast a pall on any rally and Mother Nature seems to be dictating the results we have seen so far. In the overnight electronic session the September Corn is currently trading at 350 ¾ which is ¼ of a cent higher. The trading range has been 352 to 350.
On the Ethanol Front the September contract posted a trade at 1.500 which is .010 of a cent lower with 5 contracts traded at that price. The current market is showing 5 bids @ 1.500 and 2 offers @ 1.510 with further declining Open Interest at 335 contracts as we move closer to expiration on this contract.
On the Crude Oil front we have rig counts at high noon and the market may get support from this number with further Tropical Disturbances in the Atlantic could cause disruptions in the flow of Oil as we
Showed large draws in product with the weekly Energy Stocks data the last month and could see the draws stretch. In the overnight electronic session the September Crude Oil is currently trading at 4725 which is 16 points higher. The trading range has been 4738 to 4692.
On the Natural Gas front the same old negative stories are keeping prices down. If the Tropical Storms create havoc we could see this market get some legs under it. Mother Nature is still playing games with weather as she has all year. The Farmer’s Almanac is calling for a tough winter in the Great Lakes region this winter, however, weather forecast for 2017 have been mostly wrong. In the overnight electronic session the September Natural Gas is currently trading at 2.904 which is 2 ½ cents lower. The trading range has been 2.928 to 2.888.
— Daniel Flynn
The Energy Report: Barcelona
The despicable and horrendous terror attacks in Barcelona Spain are being felt by global markets that are sinking because of the lack of respect and tolerance for our fellow man. Markets also fear the fallout from the abandonment of President Donald Trump because of his comments on the senseless murder caused by a driver in Charlottesville as fears that his economic agenda will be put on hold and more of his staff may abandon him. Whether it is hatred or killing or just not wanting to hear another person’s point of view, the extremist views are hurting everyone, not only the markets but the entire human race. We need to debate or points of view with intellect and respect not with mobs, protests and violence and hate.
Oil prices are rising after Genscape reported that supplies in Cushing, Oklahoma suddenly plunged by one million barrels. This is adding to the perception that the physical oil market is tightening much faster. Brent spreads driving the market into contango is signaling that demand is exceeding short term supply. Historic draws in US inventories are signaling the same thing. Oil supply in the US is back below 2016 levels.
Supplies should tighten even more as US crude imports, especially heavy crude, could be retrained by politics and Mother Nature. Reuters is reporting that a tanker carrying a cargo of about 1.0 million barrels of Venezuelan heavy crude has been stranded for more than a month off the coast of Louisiana for lack of a bank letter of credit to discharge. The cargo’s fate adds to state-run oil company PDVSA’s precarious financial position. Revenue from the company’s oil sales, which have suffered because of low prices and declining production, account for more than 90 percent of the nation’s exports.
Reuters says that major banks are cutting exposure to Venezuela as a result of political upheaval in the South American country. Some have closed accounts linked to officials of the OPEC member who have had sanctions leveled against them by the U.S. government and have refused to provide correspondent bank services or trade in government bonds. Signs of supply tightness have started appearing in the United States, the world’s biggest oil consumer.
The Atlantic Is more active from a storm perspective than we have seen in some time. Tropical Storm Harvey has formed and there are two storms right behind them. Accu Weather says that from west to east, the systems have been dubbed Tropical Storm Harvey and 92L. The third system is likely to be 93L. Accu Weather says that designation is assigned between 90 and 99, when there is potential for the formation of a tropical depression or storm within several days. The “L” represents potential formation for the Atlantic Ocean. Interests in the Caribbean and Central America should closely monitor the tropical Atlantic, particularly shipping, cruise and fishing ventures.
Tropical Storm Harvey to enter Caribbean Sea this weekend. Accu Weather says that the storm developed on Thursday afternoon east of the Windward Islands, becoming the eighth named tropical system of the 2017 Atlantic season. Heavy, gusty thunderstorms from Harvey will affect the Windward and southern Leeward Islands through Friday. Enough rain can fall on the islands to cause flash flooding and mudslides. Wind gusts can be strong enough to cause minor property damage. Small craft should stay in port on Friday.
Then 92L may pass north of the Caribbean Sea next week, the steering winds are likely to guide the second area of disturbed weather farther north than Harvey. “We project 92L to pass over or just north of the Leeward Islands this weekend,” according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski. How much strengthening occurs will determine the intensity of rainfall, winds and seas. Some dry air has become drawn into 92L, which could hinder its development for a time. “If 92L can overcome the dry air, it has a chance at becoming a depression or tropical storm this weekend,” Kottlowski said. A track just north of the islands of the northern Caribbean, especially the mountainous islands of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba, would favor development and strengthening, as opposed to a track right over the islands. So 92 could pose the most threat to the Gulf of Mexico shipping lanes. The third storm is expected at this time to turn out to sea and pose little risk to land.
Going south to Texas. I will be back at the Money Show for the first time in almost a decade. For all of my Energy Report readers who asked when I would be back, make sure you meet me in Dallas. To find out more just go to Dallas Money Show. Make sure you sign up early to secure a space.
— Phil Flynn
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