The USDA released their World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate Forecast (WASDE) today. Here’s what you need to know:
Wheat: U.S. wheat imports for 2016/17 are reduced this month by 10 million bushels to 115 million. Ending stocks are projected lower by the same amount to 1,129 million bushels. The season-average farm price is unchanged with the midpoint of the range at $3.85 per bushel.
Corn: This month’s 2016/17 U.S. corn outlook is for increased corn used to produce ethanol and reduced feed and residual use. Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 50 million bushels to 5,400 million based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and strong pace of weekly ethanol production during February as indicated by Energy Information Administration data. Offsetting is a 50 million bushel reduction in projected feed and residual use to 5,550 million bushels based on indicated use during 2015/16, increased corn used to produce ethanol, and higher expected sorghum feeding. The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $3.20 to $3.60 per bushel.
Corn for food, seed, and industrial use (FSI) is raised 11 million bushels for 2015/16 reflecting a 18-million-bushel increase in estimated corn used in ethanol production based on revisions to monthly data reported in the March 1 Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production 2016 Summary.
Rice: The U.S. 2016/17 rice supply and demand estimates are unchanged this month. The all rice marketing year average price is also unchanged with the midpoint of the range at $10.50 per cwt.
Soybeans: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2016/17 include higher crush, lower exports, and increased ending stocks compared with last month’s report. Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 1,940 million on increased domestic soybean meal disappearance. Soybean exports are reduced 25 million bushels to 2,025 million with increased production and exports for Brazil. Soybean stocks are projected at 435 million bushels, up 15 million from last month.
The season-average soybean price range forecast of $9.30 to $9.90 per bushel is raised 10 cents at the midpoint. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 32 to 35 cents per pound, down 2 cents at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are unchanged at $310 to $340 per short ton.
Sugar: U.S. fiscal year 2016/17 beet sugar production is decreased 265,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 5.106 million. Sucrose recovery from sugarbeet slicing reported by processors in the Sweetener Market Data (SMD) for the period covering the 6 months between August 2016 and January 2017 of this year’s sugarbeet harvest cycle imply a final crop year recovery projection from slicing at 13.9 percent, much less than the 14.7 percent underlying previous projections based on historical averages.
Cotton: This month’s 2016/17 U.S. cotton forecasts show higher production and exports relative to last month. Production is raised 271,000 bales to 17.2 million based on the March 9 Cotton Ginnings report. The final estimates for this season’s U.S. area, yield, and production will be published in the May 2017 Crop Production report. The projected range for the marketing year average price received by producers of 67.0 to 70.0 cents per pound is reduced 1 cent on the upper end, as the reported average price for January fell below previous expectations.
Livestock, poultry, and dairy: Total U.S. meat production for 2017 is increased from the previous month as higher forecast beef production more than offsets lower forecast pork and turkey production. First quarter beef production is raised on current slaughter data, and third-quarter production is raised as higher expected first quarter placements are marketed in the second half of the year. However, carcass weights for the year are forecast lower as feedlot operators are expected to remain current in their marketings. The pork production forecast is slightly lower as a result of lighter carcass weights in the first half of the year.
For 2017, the turkey production forecast is decreased on slower expected second-half production growth. Egg production estimates for 2015 and 2016 reflect recent NASS revisions. Forecast egg production is increased.
The 2017 milk production forecast is raised as milk cow numbers are expected to increase more rapidly. However, growth in milk per cow is reduced on January data. The Class III price is raised as the higher whey price more than outweighs the reduced cheese price. The Class IV price forecast is lowered, reflecting a weaker nonfat dry milk price which more than offsets a higher forecast butter price. The all milk price for 2017 is forecast at $17.80 to $18.40 per cwt.